Monday, June 12, 2006

Calculate your chance of failing

This is old news but anyways...Researchers have come up with a mathematical formula which proves Murphy's Law really does strike at the worst possible time.

Ordinary people have long known that computers crash on deadline and cars break down in emergencies, while previous studies have shown the Law, also called Sod's Law, is not a myth and toast really does fall buttered side down.

But now a panel of experts has provided the statistical rule for predicting the Law of "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" - or ((U+C+I) x (10-S))/20 x A x 1/(1-sin(F/10)).

In the calculation, five factors have to be assessed: urgency (U), complexity (C), importance (I), skill (S) and frequency (F) and each given a score between one and nine. A sixth, aggravation (A), was set at 0.7 by the experts after their poll. The closer to 10 the result is, the higher your risk of falling victim.

Top of the most likely and most annoying events that go wrong are: spilling something down yourself before a date and the heater breaking down in cold weather, followed by rush hour being worse when you're already late.

Reference: World News Australia
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